30.10.2008
Eurasia: News In Review
Central Asia and Eastern Europe
and their Relations with Russia
October, 2008The following resource is meant to give readers a quick overview of recent events within the FSU but outside of Russia. Much of the news here concerns how Russia and/or the US are affected by these generally small but politically, economically, and militarily important nations. For more reviews, see the newsletter for this corresponding month. To receive the free monthly newsletter and obzori by email, simply sign up. The NATO Question
To admit or not to admit Ukraine and Georgia Merkel Slows NATO Bids by Georgia and Ukraine
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization won't give Georgia and Ukraine a road map to membership at a meeting later this year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday. Planning to protect new NATO members divides allies: official
NATO's top commander wants to begin military planning to protect newer members of the alliance but allies are divided amid concerns over Russia's reaction, US defense officials said. U.S. wants NATO membership plan for Georgia
The United States is pushing NATO to put Georgia on a formal track to alliance membership in December, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Thursday, despite concerns about the country`s security after its war with Russia, according to Reuters. Georgia and Ukraine 'shouldn't join Nato.' (IISS)
In a potentially significant swing of expert Western opinion, a leading British think tank has urged that Nato membership should not be granted to Georgia or Ukraine. What's Looming in Ukraine Is more Threatening than Georgia
In an interview, Kremlin-aligned political strategist Vyacheslav Nikonov argues that the recent war in South Ossetia and bickering over Ukraine doesn't mean Moscow is steering into a confrontation course. But if Kiev entered NATO, he says it would spell the end of Russian cooperation with the West. Georgia: The Ignored History
American officials who embrace this simplistic narrative—and who reflexively call for Georgia's rapid rearming and accelerated accession to NATO—risk further inflaming confrontation with Russia to the grave detriment of both Western and Georgian interests. 'Russia Should Follow Georgia's Lead.'
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on democracy, NATO and American support. 5-Day War
Repercussions from the recent conflict UN Georgia mandate to be extended by four months – Russia
"The UN Security Council has come to an understanding that the mandate will be prolonged by four months, until February 15, 2009," Andrei Nesterenko said at a press conference. Khodorkovsky: Georgia war could bring EU and Russia closer
Russia's invasion of Georgia could be followed by a Kremlin effort to mend ties with the West. But the EU has to pull the Russian elite closer without losing sight of its own values, according to fallen oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovksy. The Southern Caucasus and Central Asia after the Russian-Georgian War - the geopolitical consequences
The Russian-Georgian war has been a major shock for the entire southern part of the CIS. It has revealed Russia's decisive political and military dominance, as well as its readiness to exploit security issues in the pursuit of its political and economic objectives. What Happened and Future Implications for US Foreign Policy
King opened the program with an explanation of the diversity and history of the Caucasus Region, which is about the size of Texas. The region is geographically divided into the North, which is dominated by the Russian Federation, and the South, which includes Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. An edgy neighbourhood has become both more dangerous and more important
Paradoxically, Georgia's war with Russia may enhance the chances of peaceful progress in the whole region. On Exhibit, Georgian War and a New Russian Pride
The tattered Georgian flags, the NATO-style uniforms and the American assault rifles are trophies from Russia's recent war with Georgia, gathered haphazardly but displayed with a clear message. Georgians Far From Kodori Return
Winter is coming to the mountains of western Georgia and there is virtually no communication with the Upper Kodori Gorge. Several thousand Georgians who fled in August, when Russian and Abkhaz forces captured the gorge, are coming to terms with the fact that they will not be able to go home any time soon. Human Cost I survived the Georgian war. Here's what I saw
I was in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, on Aug. 7 when Georgian troops marched into the city and killed my friends and neighbors. I huddled with my family in terror for three nights while Saakashvili's tanks and rockets destroyed hundreds of our homes, desecrated cemeteries, gutted schools and hospitals. HRW Researcher Examines Brutality, Indiscriminate Use Of Force In Georgia Conflict
RFE/RL Georgian Service correspondent Salome Asatiani spoke to Anna Neistat, a researcher with Human Rights Watch who investigated rights violations in the war-battered areas. Grim reminders as Russian troops leave
Journalists had been brought from both the South Ossetian and Georgian sides to witness the withdrawal. This was a media event as well as a military operation. The Human Cost of the War in Georgia
Large-scale destruction of property, unexploded ordnance and ongoing security concerns have stopped tens of thousands of people from returning to their homes after the Georgia-Russia conflict of 7-13 August. Tbilisi's attack affected over 5,000 people - Russia's top investigator
Georgia's aggression in breakaway South Ossetia in August affected more than 5,000 people, Russia's top investigator has told a German newspaper. International Involvement EU Diplomats Defer Decision On Georgia Cease-Fire
EU foreign ministers have put off a decision on whether Russia has complied with the terms of the Georgian cease-fire. EU Monitors Infiltrated into Buffer Zone
But Russian military allegedly tried to prevent them from doing it. Russia arrives late, says it will meet US, Georgia
Russia arrived late for its first face-to-face meeting with Georgia since their August war, but Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said he would join the Georgians and the United States for the talks Wednesday. Russia to outline security proposals at Caucasus talks
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday Russia would set out specific security proposals at international talks on the Georgian conflict in Geneva on November 18. World Court to rule on Georgia-Russia case, EU
The International Court of Justice plans to rule Wednesday on whether to order Russia to take immediate steps to halt what Georgia calls ethnic cleansing in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. France says Russia partly meets Georgia ceasefire
Russia has not fully complied with the terms of a cease-fire in Georgia, France's foreign minister said on Friday, casting fresh doubt on whether frozen EU-Russia partnership talks will resume soon. Georgia rebels accuse EU of ignoring violence
Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia accused Tbilisi on Monday of breaching a ceasefire deal by firing at its villages from an EU-monitored area, and said its forces would not hesitate to retaliate. Sarkozy Calls Georgian Actions Inadmissible
The Russian reaction was disproportionate in the war between Russia and Georgia, said French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the European Parliament in Brussels. Georgia Unleashed Conflict in South Ossetia, EC Official Said
Head of the European Commission Directorate General for External Relations Eneko Landaburu has agreed that Georgia unleashed the conflict in South Ossetia, Russia's Deputy Ambassador to the EU Nikolay Kobrinets told RIA Novosti Tuesday. UN chief wants new look at UN Georgia mission
The U.N. mission monitoring a cease-fire between Georgia and the separatist Abkhazia region should be extended for four months to explore whether to continue U.N. involvement following the Georgian-Russian war, the U.N. chief said. Georgia
Support and accusations Donors pledge $4.5 billion for Georgia recovery
International donors pledged a higher-than-expected $4.55 billion on Wednesday to help Georgia recover from its war with Russia, and Washington called it an extraordinary sign of solidarity at a time of financial turmoil. Where Georgia Stands
The struggle to ensure that Russia's aggression doesn't succeed has not ended. Relations with Russia Georgia fails to fulfill redeployment commitment
Georgia has not lived up to its commitment to return troops to their bases after the armed conflict over South Ossetia in August, Russia's foreign minister said on Thursday. Georgian Threat to Moscow Uncovered
A terrorist war may break out in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sochi, Izvestia newspaper wrote today. The publication has in its possession copies of telegrams sent to all Moscow police divisions stating that Georgian radical patriotic groups are threatening Russians. Russia urges donors to check how Georgia spends aid
Moscow hopes that countries pledging funds to rebuild Georgia will ensure the aid is not spent on rearming the former Soviet state, a source in the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday. Russian Duma accuses Georgia of failure to resettle Meskhetian Turks
The State Duma, lower chamber of the Russian parliament, has called on the world community to put pressure on Georgia following the latter's failure to meet its obligations to resettle Meskhetian Turks. A European State to Represent Russia in Georgia
One of European states will represent Russia's interests in Georgia, RIA Novosti reported with reference to the RF ambassador to Georgia Vyacheslav Kovalenko. Kovalenko returned to Moscow a few days ago following the rupture of diplomatic relations. Government and Opposition Georgia's Propaganda War (complete version)
The five-day Georgian-Russian saw Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and other Georgian officials waging an aggressive propaganda campaign and, in many ways, a disinformation war in the Western mass media. At One Georgian Cafe, a Beloved Ritual of Table-Pounding, Arm-Flailing Debate
While most of Tbilisi is still in shadows, the day's new sun glints on Turtle Lake. Set in hills overlooking the city, it's a popular spot for concerts, pedal boating and waterside dining. Even After a War With Russia, Many Georgians Revere Stalin
With his signature mustache, medal-encrusted Soviet marshal's uniform and determination to be addressed as "Comrade," the Stalin impersonator Jamil Ziyadaliev should perhaps be out of work in Georgia, a country still reeling from a war with Russia. Georgian Opposition to Saakashvili Unites Under Human Rights Banner
The group's manifesto declares that "as a result of the barbaric aggression of Russia in Georgia, the most difficult situation has arisen: many peaceful residents and military people have died, tens of thousands of citizens have become victims of ethnic cleansing. Burjanadze's 43 War Questions
Why the Georgian authorities could not foresee anticipated consequence and did not prevent direct military confrontation with Russia? Georgia's Saakashvili: freedom fighter or rights abuser?
An influential group of Georgian opposition leaders has mounted a blistering political campaign against U.S.-backed President Mikheil Saakashvili, accusing his government of running an autocratic regime that tramples human rights and stifles democracy. News Media Feel Limits to Georgia's Democracy
Imedi reopened in early September, and is now owned by Josef Kei, a pro-government businessman and a cousin of Mr. Patarkatsishvili, the Imedi founder. Abkhasia & S. Ossetia
Regions in dispute For Abkhazia, a 'Special' Independence Day
Fifteen years ago this week, flames shot out the windows of the parliament building and the final battle of a separatist war raged over this seaside city. Saakashvili Calls for Restoration of Status Quo in Conflict Regions
President Saakashvili expressed the hope that by October 10, after Russian forces have pulled out from Georgia, the pre-conflict status quo ante would be restored. Al-Qaeda in the Caucasus
A mysterious car bombing in Ossetia raises the specter of a sinister alliance. If Russia's leaving, S. Ossetia town asks: Why build a new road?
They say it's part of a Russian plan to stay – or at least to be in a position to return rapidly. Rebuilding of No Border
Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov joined yesterday the campaign for South Ossetia's reviving. Luzhkov laid a foundation stone in the future cottage village built in ex-Georgian enclave in South Ossetia. After war, Russia's influence expands.
The war with Georgia has many calling the war with Georgia has many calling for North and South Ossetia to unite. Russia wants security guarantees for Abkhazia, S.Ossetia
Russia expects agreements ensuring security in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be developed during talks Wednesday in Geneva, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said. In Mostly Georgian Part of Abkhazia, Ethnic Lines Seem Indelible
In interviews, several Gali residents complained that Abkhaz soldiers often demand cash, as well as a significant portion of their hazelnut crops, as "taxes." As members of a minority, the Georgians said, they have no one to appeal to and no choice but to pay. No Russian Leader Will Retreat from Recognition of Abkhazia, South Ossetia
However much many in Georgia or the West hope, no conceivable Russian leader is going to be willing to back away from Moscow's recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, according to one of Russia's most thoughtful commentators on the Caucasus. EU says Georgia's S.Ossetia likely closed to monitors
The head of the European Union's monitoring mission to Georgia said on Thursday it would be unrealistic to expect Russian forces to grant the monitors access to breakaway South Ossetia in the near future. FSB to Guard Abkhazia, Ossetia Borders
The FSB border service may soon take over the guard duty on the borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, after the Russian State Duma ratifies agreements of cooperation and mutual aid with the two territories. Abkhazia and South Ossetia's representatives to be admitted to Geneva talks
Yesterday at their meeting in Luxemburg EU foreign ministers acknowledged that Russia fulfilled most of its Medvedev-Sarkozy plan commitments. However they refused to sanction resumption of negotiations for a new partnership and cooperation agreement (PCA) with Moscow. Russia's Military Deny Start of Bases Deployment in Abkhazia, S. Ossetia
The RF General Staff has denied the start of deployment of Russia's military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, RIA Novosti reported. CIS/Caucauses
Political Instability - Again The West's Two-Pronged Approach
The South Caucasus is again the focus of intense diplomacy. The United States, meanwhile, has dispatched an Deputy Undersecretary of State to Azerbaijan -- a vital link in the oil and gas transit that bypasses Russia. Georgia Left, Doors Are Open
The CIS summit that opens in Bishkek today will post losses for the first time in its history. Georgia's withdrawal has been decided and the presidents of Ukraine and Azerbaijan will ignore the event. CIS Calls Off Peacekeepers in Abkhazia
The CIS Council of Foreign Ministers has passed a decision to stop the activity of the Collective Forces for the Maintenance of Peace in Abkhazia, RIA Novosti reports, citing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. CIS Sanctions against Abkhazia Don't Make Sense, RF Foreign Ministry Said
The CIS sanctions against Abkhazia have lost any sense after the latter declared independence, the RF Foreign Ministry says. Pondering CIS Dependence On Energy Exports
How low do prices need to get before they significantly affect CIS economies, and how soon might those effects start to show? Does the CIS Have a Future?
The future of the CIS is in the hands of the political elites, first and foremost, the Russian ones. Dr. Strangelove in the Caucasus (podcast)
On September 26th I spoke to the Jefferson Literary and Debating Society at the University of Virginia (the nation's oldest) on the topic: "Dr. Strangelove in the Caucasus; Or, How Saak Goes his War Game On." Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Gas Reserves Revealed
An international auditor has announced it determination of the natural gas reserves of Turkmenistan fields. The British Gaffney, Cline & Associates has stated that the reserves of the South Iolotanya and Osmana fields are comparable to Russia's largest fields. The Great Game around Turkmenistan
The new president has broken with the previous policy of self-isolation, and has directed the country towards openness to the outside world. Opportunities have thereby arisen for competitors in the 'Great Game', to gain political influence in Turkmenistan and access to hitherto unexploited Turkmen deposits of gas and oil. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Pays for Academic Reports
Johns Hopkins Institute Says It Had Complete Independence. U.S. Not Luring away Kazakhstan
The United States is not trying to lead Kazakhstan away from Russian influence, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated during her visit to Astana yesterday. There is no competition between the U.S. and Russia for influence in Central Asia, she added, and Washington does not want to lure Moscow's allies away from it. How Deep Is the Credit Crisis in Kazakhstan?
Credit crunch hits Kazakh construction and mortgages. Ukraine
Political Instability - Again Ukraine president survives air scare, 'seizes' rival's plane
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko had to make an emergency landing, then seized his chief political rival's plane. Half of Ukrainians for independent S.Ossetia, Abkhazia – poll
The poll was carried out by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center and the Ukrainian Research&Branding Group in August and September. Ukraine president, PM battle over early vote
Allies of Ukraine's prime minister vowed Tuesday to block President Viktor Yushchenko's efforts to push ahead with early parliamentary elections. Ukraine govt. denies campaign funds, urges to drop snap polls
Ukraine's government again refused on Tuesday to allocate election campaign funds and urged President Viktor Yushchenko to reverse a decision calling for early parliamentary polls, the UNIAN agency said. Ukraine's president sets Dec. 7 date for election
The decision was likely to deepen political turbulence in the former Soviet republic, with estranged ally Yulia Tymoshenko's camp and some members of Yushchenko's own party vowing to challenge the move. Ukrainian Tanks on Faina Destined for S. Sudan
Ukraine has again found itself in the heat of the scandal triggered by weapons export. The BBC obtained a freight manifest proving that the weapons on board the MV Faina were destined for South Sudan. The pirates hijacked Faina dry-cargo freighter September 25. Relations with Russia FSB Trying to Frame It, Ukraine Says
The Ukrainian Security Service yesterday accused Russian special services of recruiting Ukrainians for extremist groups in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Ukraine Preferred to Part Friends
Moscow and Kiev will extend the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership for another ten years. Moscow Criticizes Kiev
The Russian Foreign Ministry has issued an official statement expressing concern that Ukrainian policy "is leading to deteriorating bilateral ties and causing serious concern in Russia." The statement notes that "We have heard no words of regret and sympathy in connection with the deaths of civilian residents of Tskhinvali." Ukraine's Russia quandary
Crimean peninsula, home of Moscow's Black Sea Fleet, is potential flash point. Ukraine Will Leave Russian Fleet Alone
Ukraine will not plan to dissolve the agreement on the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol and force the fleet to leave the Crimea before 2017. Kremlin hyping Georgia arms sales
The war of words over Ukraine's role as one of the world's top 10 arms exporters and in supplying weapons to Georgia is heating up. Russia finds unlikely ally in Ukraine's Tymoshenko
The Kremlin has struck a tactical alliance with its former foe Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko designed to help her become the next president. Yushchenko meets with Bush Victor Yushchenko attended a useless meeting with George Bush
Yesterday Ukraine's President Victor Yushchenko finished his visit to the United States. According to the information of Kommersant, during the negotiations in Washington Mr Yushchenko attempted to convince the White House administration that it is him, rather than Yuliya Tymoshenko. U.S. pledges support for any new political coalition in Ukraine
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Wednesday Washington is ready to work with any political coalition in Ukraine that might emerge in the wake of the country's political crisis. The price of the question
The present visit by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to the United States is substantively different from his first, already forgotten, visit in the spring of 2005. At that time, the leader of the Orange Revolution was not only warmly received by U.S. President George W. Bush. Tymoshenko Meets with Putin Ukraine to Have Long-Term Gas Contract with Russia, Tymoshenko Said
The intergovernmental gas memorandum that has been agreed on by prime ministers of Ukraine and Russia paves the way for signing a long-term contract for gas supplies, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko announced Friday, RIA Novosti reported from Kiev.
Putin Meets Tymoshenko in Novo Ogarevo
Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin meets with his Ukrainian counterpart Yulia Tymoshenko in Novo Ogarevo residence outside Moscow October 2, 2008. It is the second get-together of the PMs this year, Interfax reported. Putin Sceptical about Future of Agreements with Ukraine
The uncertain internal political situation in Ukraine questions the agreements that Moscow and Kiev have already attained, Russia's PM Vladimir Putin said, hoping, however, that they won't have to rewrite the documents, Interfax reported from Novo-Ogarevo residence October 2, 2002. Azerbaijan
and its conflict with Armenia Medvedev Visits Armenia, First Caucasus Trip Since Georgian War
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev today visits Armenia, the country's closest ally in the South Caucasus, on his first trip to the region since Russia fought a war with Georgia in August. Medvedev to Mediate Frozen Conflict Between Armenia, Azerbaijan
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will mediate a frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, as he seeks to boost Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan's Aliyev set for re-election to presidency
Azerbaijan is voting in a presidential election on Wednesday with incumbent Ilham Aliyev all but certain to maintain his family's long grip on power in the strategic oil-rich former Soviet republic. Azerbaijan's president easily wins re-election
The president of oil-rich Azerbaijan easily won a second term, according to partial returns released Thursday, as opposition leaders accused the government of rigging the election. Observers criticise Azerbaijan president's re-election
Western observers said Thursday that Azerbaijan's presidential election fell short of democratic standards, after the opposition rejected incumbent Ilham Aliyev's victory with nearly 90 percent of the vote. US Cites Improvement in Azerbaijan Election
The United States Thursday joined European monitors in citing improvement in the conduct of Azerbaijan's presidential election, despite the huge victory margin of President Ilham Aliyev. Official figures give the incumbent leader 89 percent of the vote. Azerbaijani-Russian Relations Hostage To Pragmatism
The international community's primary interest in that region is Caspian hydrocarbons, and Azerbaijan is the key to their export to international markets. Belarus
Liberalization for Loans? Belarus Parliament without Opposition
Contrary to expectations, no representatives of the opposition were elected to the body. Observers from the OSCE severely criticized the elections. The recent warming of relations between Minsk and the West now looks problematic. Belarus tells IMF ready to liberalise economy
The talks with the ex-Soviet state follow a preliminary agreement between the IMF and Ukraine on a $16.5 billion standby loan and a "substantial financing package" with Hungary. Iceland and Serbia are among others who have turned to the Fund. Belarus in Russia's foreign policy
If Russia sticks to the price-raising schedule planned to run until 2011, economic relations between the two states will alter, and a new model of bilateral relations will emerge in consequence. Lukashenko Explains Cause of Crisis
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko thinks the main reason for the global credit crisis is Western corruption. "At the base of the current credit crisis is the huge amount of world corruption, which has penetrated the highest levels of power in Western governments," he stated, according to a report by Interfax. Lukashenko Looks West for Money
In spite of Russia's promise of a $2-billion credit, the Belarusian National Bank has asked the International Monetary Fund for a loan in the same amount. Putin to See The Brest Fortress
Russia's PM Vladimir Putin visits Belarus today. One of the issues on the agenda could be extension of Union State of Russia and Belarus by admitting South Ossetia and Abkhazia into it. Eastern Europe
Political Instability - Again Bank Crisis Is Bypassing Central and East Europe
New members of the European Union in Central and Eastern Europe have — so far — avoided much of the upheaval caused by the crisis of confidence in the global financial system. Pipelines and pyramids
The world's headache becomes Eastern Europe's migraine The Next Letter in BRIC
Growth tendencies in Eastern Europe are making it necessary to adjust the forecasts of their roles in the world economy in the next ten years. Baltics Radio propaganda and 1938
These stranded Russians tune almost exclusively into the Kremlin-run electronic media, not local stations, which broadcast poorly in Russian, if at all. U.S. Military Leader Stresses NATO Defense for Baltics
The United States and NATO are updating plans for defending allies neighboring Russia and will consider increasing the number of military exercises with the Baltic states, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said here Wednesday on the second and final day of a visit to the region. World Crisis Comes to the Baltic
The Fitch agency announced on Friday that it is lowering the country ratings of the Baltic countries. The ratings of Estonia and Lithuania will fall From A to A- and Latvia from BBB+ to BBB. Latvia's credit rating had also been lowered once in the summer. Moldova Won't Join NATO, President Vowed
Moldova doesn't intend to join NATO, Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin announced in the interview with Echo of Moscow radio station. The constitution spells out the status of permanent neutrality that bans from entering any defensive military alliances, the president explained. U.S. Promised Military Aid to Lithuania
The United States pledged to provide military aid to Lithuania and two other Baltic states. U.S. President George W. Bush guaranteed military cooperation during the meeting with his Lithuanian counterpart Valdas Adamkus in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. Estonia Catches Its First Spy
Estonian police have arrested high-ranking member of the Defense Ministry Herman Simm on accusations of espionage – possibly with Russia. Documentary on Estonia's "Singing Revolution"
Most people don't think about singing when they think about revolutions. But song was the weapon of choice when, between 1987 and 1991, Estonians sought to free themselves from decades of Soviet occupation. Moldova Moscow makes peace between Chisinau and Tiraspol before NATO meeting
The second meeting this year between Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and leader of the unrecognized Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic Igor Smirnov is about to take place. Moscow Spares No Diplomatic Efforts
Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin again urged Transdniestria's President Igor Smirnov to have a bilateral meeting. Smirnov had rejected to head for Moldova and Voronin said he would go to Tiraspol to talk with the breakaway leader.
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